Political Cartoon #3

I was not able to find the artist of this cartoon, but I liked it so...
The key subjects in the cartoon are Mitt Romney and his bride, the Republican Elephant. Mitt Romney represents Mitt Romney, and the Republican Elephant represents the people of the GOP who are looking for some one who can beat Obama next year.
The artist used caricature to make fun of Romney, exaggerating his large head and facial features. He also uses satire, simply trying to make the cartoon funny enough to grab people's attention.
The cartoon deals with Romney who has been so stable and high in the Republican field's polls, yet he is often discribed as "dull". Republicans are married to Romney, dependent on his stability and recognition level to beat Obama. But at the same time, Republicans are wanting to find someone else who can take his place at the top and can win. The artist seems to be looking at Romney from the other side of the isle.

Obama Update - What are his chances?

     According to Gallup.com, President Obama had an approval rating of 65% just a few months into his term.  But just two months later, his approval rating had dropped by ten  points and has been falling since. His approval rating has only risen above 50% once, for about one week, in the past two years. Compared to President Bush at this point in his first term, Obama is averaging 10-15% below. Obama now sits at a 42% approval. It is, however, debatable whether certain circumstances allowed Bush's approval to inflate.
     Gallup poles show that Obama is not going to have it easy durig the comming election. Within the large republican field, there are two candidates who have a serious chance to beat Obama in 2012; Romney and Gingrich. Gallup has not yet conducted any poles putting Obama and Gingrich against each other, but they have done this with Romney. In the most recent trial heat, 47% of people said they would vote for Obama if he was running against Romney, but 47% were on Romney's side; dead even. The numbers change weekly, but recently Romney has been on top more often then not.
     Based on the current numbers, as well as the past trends and events, I give Obama a 48% chance of being re-elected. This is of right now, but this could change tomorrow if a large event/change occured within the Republican field.  

Mitt Romney - Can he win? Pros and Cons-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9L9A1IMTQo&feature=player_detailpage

      The video linked above, besides being quite funny, shows how some people view Mitt Romney as a possible nominee for president. One reason why Romney would have trouble beating Obama if he was the GOP candidate is the fact that he has flip-floped on seemingly many issues. Because of this, many feel like they cant trust anything Romney says in a debate or interview, or at least not for long. The video above gives the impression that Romney doesn't know what he is talking about, or doesn't care enough to know what he needs to. Romney is viewed by many as inconsistant because of the few instances of flip-flopping, even if they were not that big of a deal when they occured.
      One good reason why Romney could win, at least the nomination, is that he is the only GOP candidate that has been consistance in his support base. Those who supported Romney four years ago still support him now and most likely will until the end. He has held strong at around 25% in the polls for months, while others have risen and fallen again, varying from 2% to 30%. Until last month, Romney was always on top. Now that Gingrich is on top, Romney needs to determine if Gingrich is another short-term riser or if he needs to do something to bring him down.

Political Cartoon #2

-This cartoon was drawn by the well known cartoon artist Mike Luckovich.
-The two men sitting in the love-seat represent the people of the voting population, who are tired of watching the many "flavor-of-the-month" Republican nominees rise and fall. Why they are sitting in a love-seat I dont know. The very big-screen TV on the wall shows an image of Newt Gingrich  speak, as if during a debate.
-Luckovich uses several techniques to get his point across. First he uses exaggeration to make Gingrich's caricature look strange and even scary (the size of Newt's head is often the subject of much ridicule). He uses some satire and comedy in the voice-bubble of the two men watching the TV.
-The cartoon deals with Newt's tendency to talk. During debates, Gingrich often talks past his time limit, and he has much to talk about. But the real issue is that voters have seen four or five of the many Republican nominees rise in the polls and then fall back down again due to personal or other problems. Gingrich is the latest to do this, and the general feelings are that he too is just another flavor-of-the-month.
-The cartoonist is simply trying to show the feelings that many people have towards Gingrich and the election as a whole on the GOP side. He doesn't really have, or strongly show a point-of-view, but he may feel the same way as the people in his work.

Rick Perry - Pros and Cons - Can he win?

     Rick Perry's recent gaffe in a Republican candidate debate has taken most of the attention that the media has put on him. Although the average candidate can forget anything at almost any time, Perry's brain just decided to do it at the exact wrong time. This made it easy to destroy him on this event. But this doesn't mean that Perry doesn't have any positives.
     Perry is the governor of Texas, a border state. This gives him experience on the immigration issues, including border security. Although Perry doesn't support building a full-border wall, his experience on this issue may give him a lead over other Republican candidates in this field, and maybe over Obama if Perry was selected as the nominee.
      Perry is often looked at as too conservative. Being from Texas, he brings up memories from the prevvious administration. Except for those who are tied to the Republican Party, most would view Perry as being extreme on some issues. Because of these two things, many would not support Perry, although they do not have any specific reasons. Rick Perry will have a hard time winning the Republican nomination, and will have a miniscule chance of becoming president if he does.

Political Cartoon #1

     This cartoon was drawn by Mike Luckovich, a well known political cartoonist. The focus of this cartoon is the large field of GOP candidates who are running in the 2012 presidential nomination. The long-lasting and current field leader is Mitt Romney. Dispite this, Romney is often considered dull and boring, which is why we have seen several "flavors of the month" rise in the polls but then fall back down again. One reason Romney has not seperated himself from the group and taken off is his often inconsistant support or opposition of various issues. His "flip-flopping" is often the subject of much critisism, as in this cartoon.
     The artist satirizes here using fish to represent a group of people, one of which is flopping around on the table, acting as Mitt Romney. The fact that the fish are sitting on a table waiting to be filleted brings up a sense of forshadowing of bad things to come, perhaps due to Romney's inconsistancy. The cartoon is addressing the fact that many people still support Romney dispite this flip-flopping because of a lack of any better choices. The cartoonist does not show any strong bias, or evidence of point-of-view. However, the artist is taking the stance that because Romney seemingly can't make up his mind on many important things, he should not be the Republican nominee (or maybe he wants Romney to become the nominee, confident that Obama can defeat him).

Week 4 Current Event: OCCUPY movement causing trouble

     We have all heard of the OCCUPY Wallstreet movement going on in New York. After all, it started several months ago. However, as the movement spreads to other large cities around the country, the view towards OCCUPY from most people is turning from heavily neutral to slightly unfavorable. After a war veteral was injured with a tear-gas cannister fired into the OCCUPY crowd in Oakland, many have expressed general frustration towards the movement.
     This past week, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg explained his reasoning behind his recent actions on a radio show. "These are fire hazards and against the law...our first concern is safety." Bloomberg was talking about his support of New York firefighters who took several genorators and propane heaters away from the OCCUPYers in New York parks last week. As the weather becomes colder, more protesters have brought in the gas powered machines to keep warm, but they are illegal in the parks. The protesters argue that if safely is Bloombergs top priority, then how can they take away their source of warmth. This back-and forth is going to go on for the next few months, but the fact that the OCCUPY movement still hasnt even defined their exact reasons for protesting isnt making them look any better.

Question #4

I believe that one on the biggest issues facing the state of Virginia currently, like the entire country, is debt.  The state of Virginia currently ranks 29th out of the 50th state in lowest per capita state debt. In 2007, the per capita state debt in VA was $2557...now it is $7595 per person. This is a concern. The gross state product of Virginia is actually going up, yet the debt is over 13% of the GSP. The Virginia debt has been on the rise for the past decade, but it seems as if the situation isnt getting any better, even with more attention focused on the issue in the past few years. Without any changes, the debt could quickly get out of hand like in the nation as a whole, and VA could drop down the list even more.

Week 3 - Current Event

Politicians in Washington push to cut pay raises and reduce workforce...

          A group of lawmakers, containing members of both the House and Senate and both the Republican and Democrat Parties, sent a request to the government agencies reponsible for controling government spending. This group of mostly Republican Representatives are asking for several reforms to the current system in order to reduce government spending. "Lawmakers recommended cutting the workforce by 10 percent through attrition, hiring one new worker for every three who leave, extending the two-year civilian pay freeze for an additional three years and eliminating step increases. In addition, committee members are calling for reforms to the civilian pension system..." says Emily Long of Government Executive.
         While this group is pushing for a reduction in the workforce and a reduction in pay raises, the group of predominatly Democratic Representatives on the other side is calling for something different. They say that the plan instituded by Obama last month, which puts a cap of $200,000 on the pay of many government workers, will do enough to reduce the outward flow of money. This is an optimistic look at things, but it doesnt seem to be very accurate. To put a cap on salaries for workers, many of whom already have salaries around the limit, wont reduce spending much at all. But the Republicans seem to be reaching too deep, and in doing so, they may create problems. Either plan isnt very good. But it is important to reduce government spending, and attack the huge amount of debt we have, and this plan will put a miniscule dent it the huge number.

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=49073&dcn=todaysnews

So, How has Obama done? Report Card Time...

-"Grade Obama and his success in several major issues"

The Economy C-

Most people right now are concerned with the unemployment rate in the US. If you look at this chart you can see that since 2008 the unemployment rate for the whole US went up from just under 6% to about 9.8% at its highest in 2010. Now, the unemployment rate also went up about two years into Bush's first term. However, it didnt climb at such a sharp rate, or to such a high point. Although we cant say that this was all caused by Obama's doings, or that Bush's actions in the years before didnt cause a negative effect long after they were enacted, we can see that the economy hasnt improved. The debt, as we all know, has skyrocketed, and this was not just an after-effect of Bush's years. The GDP is the only positive sign in the economy today. The 2008 growth rate was 0%, in 2009 it dipped to -2.6%, but has now recovered to +2.8%.

War on Terror B-
       One thing that everyone will remember about Obama's presidency is that Bin Laden was killed under his command. This was a huge move, and it gave the US a big step-up on terror in that region of the world. However, retaliation from this is still possible, and hopefully we will stop anything that may happen. But the role we played in Libya, for example, in using off-shore bases to launch NATO-supported air strikes, was highly debated. In a time where we are already fighting wars in multiple locations in the Middle East, getting involved, even from a distance, wasnt something that exactly strengthened confidence in Obama's decision making.


Although Obama promised a rapid reduction in troop levels in Afghanistan, ever since he has entered office, the numbers have risen. The troop levels have dropped in Iraq, but many were just moved to Afghanistan. Overall, he hasnt come through on this promise, but the safety of the US has remained fairly healthy.

Reelection Bid B
     Obama has the advantage of money. He has much more cash in his pocket that he can use in his campaign than any of the Republican candidates. However, due to the large number of promises that he made during his last campaign that he didnt hold true or succeed on, Obama has lost much of the support that he has before. His peak approval rating of 67% has dropped to 40% as of last week. For comparison, Bush had an approval rating of 59% at this point in his first term. Gallup reported in September that 38% of Americans would vote for Obama if the election was right now, compared to 46% for whichever Republican is nominated. Obama is not looking great for the election next year, but there is still much time for things to change. He has been appearing more and more, but he is still eclipsed by the huge field of Republican candidates. If he used his speaking skills to his advantage as well as he did in 2008, he may just be able to pull it off again.

Week 2 Question - What is one political issue I'm concerned with?

Well, you picked a very good question...ummm, well, let me think.................................................................
Alright, if I must talk only about one issue, I would say it would be the gridlock that keeps holding everything up over there in Washington. Why? What a stupid question for me to ask myself! Because the Republicans and Democrats on the Congress have been voting partisanly, over the past year especially, nothing big has really happened. Even in smaller issue votes, they often vote along party lines...look at these.
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/112/senate/1/132
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/112/senate/1/122
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/112/senate/1/74

Besides being annoying, it also goes against the point of government. A politician in the house or senate should vote to represent the views of the people they are representing, or they should vote for what they believe is the best thing. Gridlock occurs when polticians vote along with the majority of their party to either: make more senior members of their party happy, make the other party frustrated and prevent them from doing anything on their agenda (whether they agree with it or not) or just because they dont really know what to do. Until politicians start to work together again, nothing is going to get done, or at least not fast enough.

Week 2 Current Event

         For several weeks now, Herman Cain was been climbing in popularity and recognition within the Republican Candidate group. Just a few months ago, a hardly heard-of businessman names Herman Cain burst on to the scene as a possible Presidential contender with a healthy amount of momentum. Cain first appeared in the long list of possible candidates in March of 2011. At this point, only 21% of Americans reported recognizing Cain, not as a potential candidate, but at all.  He quickly made himself know through broad-casted Republican debates and mass media. After announcing his run for the presidency in late May, his recognition jumped up to 41%, and this number continued to rise. By the first week of October, 2011, this number had risen to 61%, a rise matched only by Bachmann earlier in the year.
        Cain is different from all the other people currently in the Republican field. His most outstanding, and often most appealing feature, is that he isn't a politician. This most likely contributed to his rapid rise, but this makes sense. Recently, Americans have shown disappointment in the government, confirmed by the 13% approval rating for the Senate (October, 2011). Cain's experience as a businessman, from running the Godfather's Pizza Company, gives people the idea that he might be a good person to have in office during a time of economic struggle.
       One thing is evident through all of this. People like Cain. As of the end of September, Herman Cain's favorability rating among those who reported knowing him was more than twice as high as the runner-up Mitt Romney, with 34/1 (highly favorable to highly unfavorable). It is apparent through the Republican debates which have been held recently, that Cain has strong knowledge of how government works and what the problems are. He has shown that he can compete with actual politicians, and has used his knowledge of economics to bring in support. However, I dont see Herman Cain becomming the Republican Nominee for President next year. He just doesnt have the confidence of the people who would be voting. I believe that by the end of this November, Cain will have dropped back behind Romney and most likely Perry as well. This will be because, by this point, people will begin to see that he just doesnt have the political experience which is so greatly needed to be a good president. However, I do feel as if Romney, who I believe will ultimatly be chosen as the Republican nominee, would be smart to choose Cain as a VP. This would give strength to the Republican ticket, stemming from Cain's economic knowledge, and it would also make Romney's "plain" character stand out more.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx?ref=logo

Current Event Assignment #1 - October 1

September 26th, 2011       Congress Comes to an Agreement on Extending the Federal Budget
       
           Earlier this year on April 8th, the Federal Budget approched its limits, and the government faced a shutdown that would last for an unknown amount of time. If this occured, then thousands of government workers would be temporarily unemployed and those in the military would not be payed until the end of the shutdown. Less than 60 minutes before the 12:01 AM shutdown time, the House Dems and Reps came to an agreement to cut about $40 billion from the budget. Although they averted the shutdown, the time extension wasnt very long at all.
           This problem loomed over the Senate again earlier this week, as they met to vote on a bill which would create a seven-week extension of the Federal Budget. The Senate voted, and the bill was passed 72 yes to 12 no, 9 Senators didnt vote. Out of the 72 yes votes, 51 were Democrats, and all of those who voted No and those who didnt vote at all were Republican.
           All this bill does is gives the Senate more time to come up with a more long term solution. That solution, in the past, has been to just extend the debt ceiling. In August of this year, the Senate passed a bill by 74-26 which extended the debt ceiling by $400 billion, and made two new steps for future ceiling extensions to more than $2.1 trillion. Although they plan on almost $1 trillion in government debt reduction measures between 2012 and 2021, this doesnt seem to be working well enough, or fast enough. Who really knows what is going to be done next time the limit is reached, but based on recent events, one might be able to hazard a good guess.

http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/112/senate/1/153
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20052351-503544.html
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/08/02/senate-passes-debt-limit-extension

Question #1: what political party are you most closely aligned with and why?
I do not associate myself with any party. I feel like there are both good things and not so good things within each party's agenda/ideology. I am fairly liberal in social issues, and fit into the libertarian party most comfortably in that area. However, in issues dealing with the economy and the federal government's size/power/limitations I tend to lean to the conservative side. Overall, I have been rated as a "liberal centrist." I usually end up supporting republican candidates during elections..lesser of two evils...

Mid-week Status Report

Well, the first quarter interims are comming out soon, and I can't say I'm happy with any of my grades as they are right now. I believe I have set a new personal record for lowest grade on a grade report with a 25% in astronomy (missed half of the assignments). Beside all that fun stuff, not much has happened. CLC's tonight were fun, but as is normal for me, I could afford Chipotle and am going hungry again...For all you reading this by the way, I feel bad for you. Why you might ask...it is sad that you care what I write, but flatering so keep it up...I'm hungry so im gonna stop typing now, so as Mr. Timn would say "I'm gonna get me some of that ice cream boy..."

QUOTE 1

"Governing dynamics, gentlemen. Governing dynamics. Adam Smith … was wrong" - John Nash
refering to the great economic theorist, whose work stood for decades as the standard rule, but was shown to be wrong. Why this is the name of my blog, and why my nick name is Governing Dynamics, is a long story Im not willing to talk about...

Intro--

Hello,
         My name is Ian Godwin, you probably already know that if you are looking at my blog. The purpose of this blog is to post news articles and other things like that for AP CompGov, but again, you probably already know that. Just for some info, my favorite movie and band and food and all those other common questions people ask...all those are unanswerable at this time...sorry. The name of this blog, if you are wondering, comes from a quote from the movie "A Beautiful Mind"...I will provide this quote, and will provide a new one every week...yay...