According to Gallup.com, President Obama had an approval rating of 65% just a few months into his term. But just two months later, his approval rating had dropped by ten points and has been falling since. His approval rating has only risen above 50% once, for about one week, in the past two years. Compared to President Bush at this point in his first term, Obama is averaging 10-15% below. Obama now sits at a 42% approval. It is, however, debatable whether certain circumstances allowed Bush's approval to inflate.
Gallup poles show that Obama is not going to have it easy durig the comming election. Within the large republican field, there are two candidates who have a serious chance to beat Obama in 2012; Romney and Gingrich. Gallup has not yet conducted any poles putting Obama and Gingrich against each other, but they have done this with Romney. In the most recent trial heat, 47% of people said they would vote for Obama if he was running against Romney, but 47% were on Romney's side; dead even. The numbers change weekly, but recently Romney has been on top more often then not.
Based on the current numbers, as well as the past trends and events, I give Obama a 48% chance of being re-elected. This is of right now, but this could change tomorrow if a large event/change occured within the Republican field.
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